The mechanisms of shallow earthquakes have been traditionally modeled by explicit slip- or velocity- dependent friction laws. In this project we extend the present state of understanding of earthquakes by recognition of the importance of normal deformation (separation) of the fault surfaces during the earthquake event. We show that it is one of primary factors affecting the dynamic instability of tectonic plates and, as a consequence, earthquakes.
This is illustrated by computer simulations of stick-slip for a model of sliding rocks. We show that unstable slip event is predictable using velocity-independent friction laws, combined with a detailed modeling of normal vibrations and separation on the contact surface.
This work and its continuation will help
fully understand the earthquake source and assist the quest for its modeling
and prediction.